The next full Moon will be the third full Moon of 2025, the Worm Moon rising on 14th March at 18:40 UTC.The Worm Moon will also be the 14 March 2025 lunar eclipse visible from North America, Europa and the UK.And there are four supermoons in 2025:
Harvest Moon – 7 October
Beaver Moon – 5 November
Cold Moon – 4 December
Markets bottom the same way, over and over again. And then he laid it out:
📌 A lot of market bottoms happen in March and October.
📌 Stocks tend to V-bottom. Commodities? They consolidate, base, then turn.
📌 And the last one is weird… full moons.
Seriously. Full moons. At first, I thought he was joking. But then I started looking into it. Turns out, Paul Montgomery —a legit market...
There are two key variables that influence the price of each stock you own
The earnings of your underlying companies
The multiple that investors are willing to pay for those earnings – which we can think of as “investor sentiment”
But see how this flips the further out you go (the columns to the right).
The Timeless Edge: How Trend Following Has Dominated Markets for Centuries From the pits of 19th-century speculation to today’s systematic hedge funds, trend following has remained the ultimate trading edge. Here’s why it works — and why it always will. For centuries, traders have tried to predict markets — chasing news, studying fundamentals, and searching for a perfect formula to outthink the...
The Birth of Systematic Trend Following For most of history, traders applied trend following intuitively. But in the early 20th century, the strategy became systematic.
🔹 Dow Theory (1900s): Identified market trends based on price action.
🔹 Richard Wyckoff (1920s): Recognized how “smart money” moved first.
🔹 William Dunnigan (1950s): Created one of the first formalized trend-following...
The Unspoken Truth of Early Trading Trend following wasn’t born in a lab. It wasn’t a theory crafted by economists. It was a survival mechanism. In the 1900s, the most powerful traders — Gould, Patten, Cutten, Livermore — moved markets through insider knowledge, manipulation, and sheer size. The only way smaller traders survived was by recognizing the trend and riding the moves made by the big...
There have only been two other times in modern history where all the conditions aligned for a historic, exponential Mega Melt-Up:
The late 1920s , when electrification and mass production transformed the economy.
The late 1990s , when the internet ushered in a new era of commerce and communication.
In both cases, stocks went parabolic.And in both cases, there were plenty of skeptics...
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is widely known as the market’s “fear gauge” because it measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) over the next 30 days, based on at-the-money options. When uncertainty rises or stocks drop, the VIX tends to spike. However, there’s another volatility index that may deserve the “fear gauge” title even more: The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW). The SKEW measures...
But here’s the thing: when you reinvest your dividends, the magic of compounding kicks in. The difference is shocking: your $10,000 would have grown to $5,118,735, or more than $4.3 million more than you’d have booked on price gains alone! That’s a 51,087% profit.
The Biden administration invested a lot of efforts into more regulation. Bank deals came to a standstill. Just over 500 deals have gone through during his time in office. The number of deals has fallen every year.Not to mention, those deals are taking longer than ever to close. Take a look... The Biden administration has seen the slowest M&A era of this millennium. No wonder the industry is...
gold and silver , but what about platinum and palladium ? Will they finally catch up? We think the answer is a resounding yes , and here’s why: 🔥 Check out these monthly candlesticks: Platinum, palladium, gold, and silver all closed near the upper bounds of January’s range. That’s bullish. Click the chart to enlarge it. But there’s more…
81 countries recently met in Russia to potentially back their countries currencies in gold (and ditch the US dollar).
Commercial real estate defaults could ignite the next round of bank failures.
Our debt just ran past $35 trillion dollars and the cost to finance that debt is skyrocketing.
If you get too caught up in the noise, it’s easy to fall into panic and lose sight of the bigger picture. After all, the market is a discounting mechanism and is likely ahead of any headline. The key is to block out the distractions and stick with your plan. Risk management, discipline and your rules.
A few months back, you might remember that a little thing called the “yen carry” trade was spooking markets in a similar way.That was a lot more complicated in nature, but it was ultimately a leverage event just like this was. One that we recommended buying .The S&P 500 is up about 16.4% since then… And both the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH) posted...
Take a look. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (SPY, blue line), along with the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average (S5FI, purple line) and the 200-day moving average (S5TH, red line). These lines show something pretty strange: Monday’s volatility, with a 1.5% drop in the most important stock market index in the world, was broadly healthy. The number of stocks above...
After walking through DeepSeek’s alleged cost advantage over U.S. incumbent AI platforms (and expressing suspicion about it), Luke pivoted toward why yesterday’s news was a net win for U.S. AI investors:
Even assuming all of DeepSeek’s cost claims are true – which we doubt – we believe the implications of such a massive AI model efficiency breakthrough are hugely positive for AI stocks. On...
Why interest rates are rising, despite the Federal Reserve’s cuts
Banks’ HUGE missteps that led to massive unrealized losses in their bond portfolios
The Federal Reserve’s only option left to bring rates down, and how it will cause inflation
Trump's potential to turn things around, and what happens if he fails
The real reason he’s talking about Buying Greenland
The role of real asset...
BP to slash 8,000 jobs in bid to save £1.6bn: Axe falls as boss waters down its green targets BP to slash 8,000 jobs in bid to save £1.6bn: Axe falls as boss waters down its green targets Read full story
Stocks are highly overvalued by traditional metrics. The U.S. is at a record percentage share of the MSCI Global Index. The Buffett Indicator - measuring the market’s value against underlying economic GDP, has never been more extreme. We already know the gradual process. We see it daily, write about it every day, and live it as investors and traders.The problem is that once the suddenly...
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