The Technology sector continues to struggle , showing little evidence of a tradable low. Within it, software plays a crucial role in gauging market strength. These have been the best stocks to own over the past 15 years. They’re true secular leaders. They are some of the best businesses. Basically, as they go, so goes the market. The Software ETF $IGV is retesting its prior cycle highs from...
You simply don't have any American Mega-cap Tech stocks in Europe (FEZ), which is up over 14.5% this quarter. Latin America (ILF) and Africa (AFK) are each up 13.5% this quarter. And Chinese Internet (KWEB) is up 20%. These are historic returns to start the year. And I'm not cherry picking here. We're literally talking about every continent except North America. Meanwhile, the S&P500, Dow Jones...
When a decline gets too stretched, it shows the asset is oversold. A snapback rally usually follows. And that makes the RSI a useful contrarian indicator.An RSI below 30 is considered oversold. And the Russell 2000's RSI recently plunged to 24. Take a look... The Russell 2000 crashed. But according to the RSI, this move is likely overdone... And small caps are likely to rebound from...
When we look at it on a relative basis, it’s been carving out a massive top against the S&P 500. Right now, the ratio sits near its lower bounds—neither breaking down nor catching a bid higher. We’re just hanging in there. How this resolves will shape our positioning in the weeks ahead.
If a stock is above its 200-day, it’s probably not in a downtrend. The chart below shows the S&P 500 overlaid with the percentage of NYSE stocks above their 200-day moving average. This gives us a broad view of what is going on beneath the hood. During strong and healthy bull markets, I expect the indicator to remain elevated. Right now, that percentage has dropped to its lowest level since...
But these are the key levels for the S&P500. If the S&P500 is below 5600, which is about 560 for $SPY, then that's a big problem for the direction of the market. Below 560 and this is not an uptrend, but a sideways trend at best, and possibly even a downtrend. The Nasdaq100 $QQQ already broke that level and is still stuck below it. 500 is the equivalent level for the QQQs.
The real sweet spot comes three to six months after a correction signal. Six months post-correction, the IXIC has averaged a 16% gain, with 78% of returns positive. When the index moved higher over that period, the average return was over 23%. Notably, in 18 of the 23 corrections since 1990, the IXIC never fell into bear market territory (-20%) before reaching a new all-time high. Slow Bleed vs....
Following the news, investors panicked and the markets crashed. While this was five years ago, I want to bring this up today because the folks at Bespoke Investment Group recently pointed out that the S&P 500’s actions over the past three weeks have been eerily similar to the same three-week period in 2020. You may recall that the S&P 500 peaked and hit a new all-time high on February 19, 2020,...
Here's the daily chart for the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor Fund (MTUM)... We don't trade this fund a lot, but it's an important tool... It tracks large-cap and small-cap stocks that exhibit higher price momentum.This MTUM chart is simple... You can see the 200-day moving average (200-DMA) above, in red, which helps clarify the long-term trend.Back in August 2024, the fund briefly fell below...
As I've said a whole bunch of times, if the Semiconductor Index completes this massive top relative to the S&P500, then chances are that the bull market is cancelled. With Semi's rallying this week, despite the selling pressure in other areas of the market, that alpha put the Semiconductor Index back above all that support, invalidating any bearish implications that may have occurred earlier in...
First, is this thing about investor sentiment. How is it possible that individual investors in America are the most bearish they've been since the bottom of the last bear market back in 2022? I think it's because of what they own. They're not in China , which is making new 3-year highs. They're not in Germany, or Europe , which are hitting new all-time highs. They're in mega-cap US growth...
A hammer is found at the bottom of a downtrend and can signal a change in the trend. We won’t know until Monday morning with confirmation of the ES1! trading higher.
Here's the problem... If you buy into this soft-landing or no-landing narrative, you're saying you no longer believe in economic cycles.The reality is that if you zoom out, you'll see that our economy always moves in cycles. It doesn't move in gentle straight lines. It looks more like a roller coaster than a plane landing smoothly.
$SPX - Finally found support at 5666 around the July 2024 top. It rallied 100 points off the intraday low and still closed above the 200 day MA, so it looks like the 73 day cycle low is in, 1 day late. This is a multi week low and maybe an intermediate term low as well.
How's best week ever for a momentum thrust? These diversified global equity ETFs just booked their largest weekly outperformances in history vs $SPX MSCI EAFE $EFA STOXX 50 $FEZ All World Ex-US $VEU Germany/France too $EWG $EWQ Looks like international leadership has legs
$SPX Weekly Bollinger Bands Many indicators are saying the same thing: Short-term oversold in a long-term uptrend is bullish. See: 2023-24, 2020-21, 2019, 2016-2017, etc. Unless the long-term uptrend is cracking. See (or feel): 2022.
Five days in a row with a 1% move for the S&P 500, but all 5 days also closed above the 200-day MA. In other words, volatility but stocks in an uptrend. Only happened 11 other times since 1950, but stocks were higher 6 months later 10 times and up 11.0%. Not bad.
The Nasdaq 100 has closed above its 200-day moving average for 496 consecutive trading days, the 2nd longest uptrend in history. But the streak is in jeopardy here as it's now less than 1% above the 200-day MA. $NDX
$XLP relationship with $SPX creeping up a bit back in line with the rate of trend we have seen for the past 2+ years. Likely don't want to see too much more relative strength from this area...
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