The U.S. Dollar having its worst week in years is probably helping to drive this rotation: I think this U.S. Dollar selloff has been SO dramatic, that it's accelerated this rotation into international stocks to the point where U.S. stocks, particularly the Large-cap Growth areas, are being used as a source of funds for this rotation. It's not so much that the stock market wants a higher dollar...
All this is happening while the US Dollar just closed the week at the lowest levels since early December. The bond market is pricing in higher inflation, suggesting that Crude Oil could take off next.
We can see it by looking at the Commitment of Traders ( COT ) report. This weekly report shows us the real-money bets of futures traders. When these folks all agree on an outcome, the opposite tends to occur.That's important – because according to the COT report, futures traders all hate the euro right now. Take a look... Bets on the currency collapsed at the end of 2024. The euro's COT reading...
CAD’s close correlation with commodities—especially oil and metals—due to Canada’s heavy exposure to natural resources. Just look at how the CAD has historically traded alongside Crude Oil over the past years. They look almost identical. They say history doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. If CAD/USD rips higher from here and buyers defend support around 0.68, we can expect energy stocks,...
Click the chart to enlarge it. I’m betting the greenback is heading south, and if I’m right, it’ll be a game changer for risk on positions. Historically, a weakening dollar has fueled massive moves across commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies, and real economy stocks. This isn’t just a short term trend—it’s the kind of shift that can set the tone for the next major macro cycle. The dollar’s...
$SPX Definitely not a good week for the S&P500... Failing at all moving averages and now printing lower highs and lower lows... Are summer peaks and the 200d MAV the next stops? RSI personality seems to say so...
The chart below looks at the nominal U.S. dollar index (blue line, left axis) and the performance of the S&P 500 (red line) over the last 10 years. As investors can see, stocks have performed very well during periods when the dollar was weakening, and stocks have also rallied when the dollar strengthened substantially (2024 being a prime example). Put simply, the fact that there is no significant...
The U.S. dollar has been getting stronger. In 2024, the dollar gained against every major peer country’s currency, rising especially sharply against emerging markets countries. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw an especially sharp appreciation versus a basket of developed market currencies (chart below), marking the biggest rally in nearly a decade. All told, the greenback enters 2025 at a...
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